The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee brainstormed the impact of any future shocks on the inflation trajectory and stressed monitoring the cumulative effect of monetary policy actions over the past one year, which is still unfolding, revealed minutes of the rate-setting panel released on Thursday. The minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), headed by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das, also indicated it would be premature to declare an end to the monetary tightening cycle, which started in May 2022 to check high inflation following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war. The central bank, which effected six back-to-back hikes in the key short-term lending rate (repo) since May 2022 to check high inflation, decided to take a pause early this month.
The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday opted for a pause second time in a row, maintaining key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent as inflation moderates. The rate increase cycle was paused in April after six consecutive rate hikes aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022. Announcing the bi-monthly monetary policy, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent.
Markets ended weak tracking the expiry of April derivative contracts.
For the year as a whole the price is expected to average $1,270, which compares with the year-to-date average of $1,289.
India, Asia's third-largest economy, is likely to grow 5.3 per cent in 2013, the OECD said, lower than the November forecast of 5.9 per cent.
Shares of real estate firms have been outperforming over the past year. The rally, analysts say, may hit roadblocks in the near term amid stretched valuations, even as the long-term prospects for the sector remain ebullient. "Most of the positive news flow is already in the price. Hence, investors sitting on hefty profits may partially cash out at current levels," suggests V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
It took India's IT-BPO sector just over a decade to grow more than 12 times, from $4 billion in 1998 to a shade under $50 billion in 2009. Admittedly, the target set by the software service providers' body Nasscom was off by a year.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday due to profit booking in banking, financial and IT stocks after a recent rally. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 537.22 points or 0.94 per cent to end at 56,819.39 as 24 of its stocks declined. During the day, it tanked 772.57 points or 1.34 per cent to touch a low of 56,584.04. The broader NSE Nifty declined by 162.40 points or 0.94 per cent to 17,038.40 with 39 of its constituents ending in the red. Bajaj Finance was the biggest loser among Sensex stocks, dropping by 7.24 per cent.
The domestic benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 - had lost close to 1.5 per cent in three days recently before gaining slightly. Notwithstanding weakness and volatility, the Nifty50 has managed to hold on to the 18,000 mark, while the Sensex has managed to stay above the 61,000 level. The performance of the stocks that comprise these front-line indices remains polarised.
Traders said a weakening global trend as the outlook for improving economic growth and strengthening of the dollar curbed demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven mainly kept pressure on gold and silver prices.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its outlook for India's economic growth unchanged at 7 per cent for the current fiscal year while forecasting a weaker-than-previously expected pace for developing Asia. ADB's 7 per cent growth projection for fiscal 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023), unchanged from its September forecast, compares to 8.7 per cent GDP growth in 2021-22. For 2023-24, the GDP growth has been kept unchanged at 7.2 per cent.
'Investors should hold equity assets for 3 to 5 years.'
Nearly 9 out of 10 ultra-high-net-worth individuals in India saw an increase in wealth during in 2022, and the super rich expect their wealth to grow further this year, according to a Knight Frank survey. In its latest 'The Wealth Report: Outlook 2023', real estate consultant Knight Frank has revealed the findings of the global survey. Among Indian respondents, the consultant said 88 per cent saw a rise in UHNWI's (ultra-high-net-worth individuals) wealth in 2022.
'Markets could face uncertainty in the short to medium term.' 'It would be prudent to invest in alternative asset classes, especially debt, for about a year.' 'Bank fixed deposits are offering rates as high as 9 per cent per annum and these can be used as a great hedging tool until equity markets stabilise.'
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das and Finance Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg are also expected to attend the meetings.
Inflation trajectory, domestically as also globally, is what will shape the economy, and therefore the market, over the next couple of quarters.'
Other top losers in the Sensex pack included Bharti Airtel, Asian Paints, TCS, HCL Tech, Tata Steel, SBI, IndusInd Bank and Hero MotoCorp, declining up to 3.28 per cent.
NCAER has warned that India's exports might miss the target of 12 per cent growth this fiscal due to the appreciating rupee.
Nasscom said growth for the current financial year (2016-17) was expected to be 8.6%
Fund raising by Indian companies through the offshore debt market is expected to rise in 2015.
The Adani group has the maximum number of companies in the trillion club at five, followed by the Tata group (four).
'India has always been a bottom-up stock-picking market, and as growth recovers with higher liquidity, mid and small-caps always tend to outperform.'
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath also said the pickup in global growth for 2020 remains highly uncertain as it relies on improved growth outcomes for stressed economies like Argentina, Iran, and Turkey and for under-performing emerging and developing economies such as Brazil, India, and Mexico.
Soon after Prime Minister Modi's assertion, the G20 countries also came down heavily on terrorism.
The Finance Ministry expects GDP growth to be 8-8.5 per cent in 2015-16.
Indian economy grew 7.9% in March quarter and recorded a five-year high growth rate of 7.6% for the 2015-16 fiscal
China is keen to rebalance its economy towards higher consumption, services, technology use and value-added exports. The hope is that its currency will strengthen as the world embraces it as a global trade and reserve currency, say Abheek Barua & Bidisha Ganguly.
Government's focus on infrastructure is the biggest positive for the Indian economy, followed by the improvement in tax collections and good consumption recovery.
The meeting will focus on how to make the crisis an opportunity for India.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection to 8.8 per cent for 2022 from 9.1 per cent earlier, citing high inflation. In its update to Global Macro Outlook 2022-23, Moody's said high-frequency data suggests that the growth momentum from December quarter 2021 carried through into the first four months this year. However, the rise in crude oil, food and fertilizer prices will weigh on household finances and spending in the months ahead.
Many investors want to exit equities now and re-enter when they begin to rise. Such timing is difficult to pull off.
India's services sector activities touched the highest mark since April 2011 amid ongoing improvements in demand conditions, even as cost pressures in the service economy remained stubbornly high, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 58.9 in May to 59.2 in June -- its highest mark since April 2011. For the eleventh straight month, the services sector witnessed an expansion in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
HSBC on Monday lowered India's GDP forecast for the current financial year to 4 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier saying economic uncertainty is likely to weigh on the growth forecast in the coming months.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) infused Rs 11,630 crore in the Indian equity markets in April on the reasonable valuation of stocks and appreciation in the rupee. This came after FPIs infused a net sum of Rs 7,936 crore in equities in March, mainly driven by bulk investment in the Adani Group companies by the US-based GQG Partners. However, if one adjusts for the investments of GQG in Adani Group, the net flow was negative.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
India's manufacturing sector activities witnessed faster growth in April amid quicker increases in production as well as factory orders, and renewed expansion in international sales, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 54.0 in March to 54.7 in April, as a retreat of COVID-19 restrictions continued to support demand. The April PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the tenth straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
CPI inflation could fall marginally but stay above RBI's comfort level.
Service providers' confidence with regard to the 12-month outlook for business activity remained positive.
Traders said sustained offerings by stockists on the back of weak global trend, as investors weighed the outlook for the Fed's monetary policy after improving economic growth, mainly reduced demand for gold as an alternate investment.
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